By Camila Manrique, Spring 2026 Marcellus Policy Fellow

In early September of 2025, the United States embarked on a campaign of gunboat diplomacy in the Western Hemisphere, one that would culminate in the capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro by U.S. forces on January 3rd, 2026. The Trump administration designated transnational criminal organizations as foreign terrorist organizations, framing the flood of “deadly drugs, violent criminals, and vicious gangs” entering the United States as a direct national security threat. Then, the administration authorized the Pentagon to deploy ten warships and approximately 10,000 military personnel into the Caribbean Sea, justifying the escalation through allegations of Maduro’s direct involvement in drug smuggling operations targeting the United States. Following Maduro’s capture, President Trump declared that the United States would “run Venezuela,” yet offered little indication of a coherent reconstruction or governance strategy for the nation’s future.

The foundation for this military escalation is outlined in the 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) which proposes a readjustment of U.S. military presence in the region to assert U.S. interests when justified. It identified three principal threats in the Western Hemisphere: migration, drugs and crime, and China. The strategy introduced to target these threats in a new approach called the “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine, a policy intended to restore U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere. Yet even as the NSS authorizes use of lethal force when deemed necessary, a central question remains: Would a strategy of U.S. military dominance in the Western Hemisphere advance U.S. interests?

The United States must recognize that military force is ill-suited to addressing the structural conditions that drive migration, fuel the growth of organized crime, and draw nonhemispheric competitors into the region. U.S. policy should not pursue a strategy of hemispheric supremacy but rather adopt a posture grounded in realism and restraint, recognizing that regional stability serves U.S. interests better than costly dominance. This paper argues that a U.S. strategy focused on dominance in the Western Hemisphere, justified by a strengthened military presence on national security grounds, undermines long-term diplomatic relations and weaken regional trust. The following analysis will begin with an explanation as to why the United States has changed its strategy on the Western Hemisphere under the Trump administration. Then the analysis will introduce a brief history of the Monroe Doctrine and examine how it has influenced U.S. strategy in the Western Hemisphere. Lastly, this paper will go through the administration’s objectives outlined in the NSS 2025 and analyze whether a new U.S. strategy addresses these goals. Policy recommendations include a strategy that: (1) financially supports rural development programs to address the structural barriers that create mass production of drugs, (2) deepens economic ties in Latin America by prioritizing investment in development and infrastructure, and (3) prioritizes the stability of Latin American nations.