By David Dichoso, Spring 2026 Marcellus Policy Fellow

Standing as the southern and eastern anchors of the United States’ deterrence-by-denial strategy in the Indo-Pacific, the Philippines and Japan are strengthening their ties and expanding their own bilateral military cooperation, including enhancing their defensive capabilities of key geography within their territories that serve to deny Beijing’s access to and from during a conflict. While both states have pursued military and policy reforms that respond to Beijing’s military provocations and gray-zone coercion in the region, they are also driven by their shared pursuit of strengthening their own territorial and archipelagic defenses while building partnerships to support their strategic efforts. Yet, these actions can also risk escalating tensions beyond the control of diplomacy, pushing Beijing to respond resolutely through either more coercion or even the use of force.

With Washington’s National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy emphasizing the need for greater burden sharing by its allies, the United States has increasingly expected its allies to take on more responsibility in strengthening their sown defenses. Resoundingly, Manila and Tokyo have followed suit; both countries have increased their defense spending and pursued modernized conventional capabilities that can hold target China’s mainland, particularly areas along China’s eastern coasts. These developments to strengthen their own forces combined with heads of state who are not shying away from their own China challenge are running the risk of provoking an arms race in Indo-Pacific region.

Thus, against this backdrop of a potential great-power conflict between the United States and China, it is urgent that Washington alongside Tokyo and Manila seek to de-escalate tensions efforts with Beijing while mainlining credible as a multi-national force coalition capable of balancing against China’s power. Although Washington must maintain its credibility as a regional leader to shape and guide Tokyo and Manila militarily, it is equally important for Washington to manage a strategic competition responsibly while avoiding any unnecessary escalation from Beijing. 

This paper argues for a practical way forward, specifically for responsible burden-sharing that requires a more calibrated U.S. forward-deployed military presence in Japan and the Philippines. Failing to effectively manage alliances with these nations can undermine crisis stability by heightening Beijing’s perception of encirclement can embolden it to undertake actions that threaten to destabilize the entire region and can expose both countries to economic and energy vulnerabilities. It proposes that a restraint-based, U.S.-led deterrence-by-denial strategy grounded in defense realism can preserve deterrence while reducing escalation risks. This approach allows Tokyo and Manila to strengthen their national defense while maintaining the flexibility to manage domestic and economic pressures during periods of crisis, offering a more sustainable balance between deterrence and resilience in the Indo-Pacific.