By Hekmat Matthew Aboukhater, Fall 2025 Marcellus Policy Fellow

Washington should pursue a policy of controlled de-escalation with Iran to prevent the Middle East from tipping into a new regional imbalance. In the post October 7th Middle East, the fall of Assad has weakened the Shia Axis and opened space for Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE to shape the postwar order in their interests. Continued U.S. pressure on Iran will contain Tehran, but also risk breaking the only remaining counterweight to this rising Sunni Regional Order.

This paper recommends ending the war, restraining Israeli efforts to restart it, and returning to a JCPOA-style framework built around strict IAEA inspections, limited enrichment, and gradual sanctions relief. This approach faces serious obstacles: Tehran may no longer trust Washington after the collapse of the original JCPOA and subsequent attacks, Sunni powers may react to U.S.-Iran de-escalation by coordinating more closely, and domestic politics in Washington and Tehran could block any durable opening.

Still, this paper argues that U.S. long-term interests in the region are not served by the complete destruction of Iran and its proxies, a scenario that, with more Americans demanding the departure of the U.S. military from the region, leaves the post-axis-of-resistance void ready to be filled by nascent Sunni powers that are growing in military and economic strength.