By Suruchi Rajan, Spring 2026 Marcellus Policy Fellow

On February 28th, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a joint military campaign against Iran, following several months of the Pentagon’s largest military buildup in the Middle East since the Iraq War. On the first day of the war, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, was assassinated, along with several other high-ranking state officials. The Trump administration’s objectives have shifted both prior to and during the operation, oscillating between targeting Iran’s nuclear machinery, destroying its conventional ballistic missile program, and “liberating” the Iranian people. Following the strike, President Trump has repeatedly expressed support for regime change and indicated that the United States should play a role in selecting Iran’s next leader. In truth, the administration is emboldened by the military success of last summer’s Twelve-Day War and the recent capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela. Thus, U.S. interests are another affair entirely – the Trump administration is committed to pursuing regime management in Iran, using military force to destroy Iranian retaliatory capabilities and force concessions. Despite the tentative ceasefire, the decapitation strikes have set political and strategic dynamics in motion that will be difficult to shake. Thus, this strategy raises two critical questions: what are the consequences of targeting Iran’s leadership and are the administration’s goals achievable in Iran?

Historical and theoretical evidence, along with early signs of Iranian response, suggest state consolidation and economic retaliation that are only adverse to American interests in the region. Regimes characterized by strong institutions, cohesive elites, and nationalist legitimacy often survive leadership assassinations. Iran possesses all three features, not only suggesting that regime management is unlikely, but the United States also risks drawing itself into a prolonged conflict while generating larger strategic problems. Rather than engaging in an unnecessary and costly war, the United States should adopt a strategy of strategic restraint toward Iran, prioritizing sanctions relief, offshoring balancing, and nuclear diplomacy over policies that may strengthen the Islamic Republic.