By Cameron Tobias, Spring 2026 Marcellus Policy Fellow

The creation of a safe Western Hemisphere must be a three-pronged effort, involving American development, consumption, and non-interference. Each prong will proceed in service of the Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance (Rio Treaty), conditioned on the accession of each party to the treaty. Latin American members of the Rio Treaty will be the beneficiaries of low-interest infrastructural loans provided by the Inter-American Development Bank. Goods produced in Rio Treaty countries, by firms incorporated therein, will be given duty-free entry to the United States’ domestic market. Lastly, the United States will pursue a policy of noninterference in the domestic politics of its Rio Treaty allies, foregoing the tools of regime change through covert or overt means. These concessions will be offered to any Latin American partner nation if they join the Rio Treaty and commit not to host any extra-hemispheric military forces on their soil.

These measures will preserve US regional influence without prompting allies to balance against the United States. Most importantly, this initiative will forestall the worst long-term possibilities concerning the emergence of a rival military power in Latin America, including the People’s Republic of China (PRC). By necessity, this effort will involve limited competition with the PRC, which has already established deep commercial inroads into the Western Hemisphere. However, competition with the PRC would be limited to the provision of capital and market access. Indeed, the initiative described above is designed not to militarize this competition, but rather to sufficiently backfill existing alliances and preclude militarization.