By Kamsi Obiorah, Fall 2024 Marcellus Policy Fellow

The “one-China” policy has been chronically invalidated by U.S. presidents over time, which has increased
the likelihood of a future Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Instead of rashly promising to militarily defend Taiwan in battle, Washington must face the reality of its disappointing anti-ship weapons stockpile and that of Taiwan. The Davidson window, the Department of Defense’s (DOD) estimate of China’s military readiness to invade Taiwan, opens in 2027. By then, U.S. LRASMs will be below the amount needed to swiftly defeat China. The United States is also well behind schedule on its delivery of 400 surface-based Harpoons and 100 launchers to Taiwan. Only a third of this arms sale, which could be susceptible to further delays, is expected to reach Taiwan in 2026.

Bulk-buying LRASMs and selling more Harpoons to Taiwan in an attempt to make up for lost time can cause an arms race where China ramps up warship production. The United States needs to craft an agreement where it bans future LRASM purchases, Harpoon sales, and U.S.–Taiwan government leader visits, so long as China commits to peacefully resolving its dispute with Taiwan and stops carrying out intimidating military exercises around Taiwan. A restraint pact of this kind reaffirms the “one-China” policy and prevents war. This would make low inventories of anti-ship weapons a non-issue
as the United States would no longer have a need for them.

In the meantime, U.S. government officials must stop declaring that the United States will come to the
defense of Taiwan during a Chinese invasion. This stance betrays “strategic ambiguity” and risks the credibility of all deterrent threats if the United States does not follow through on this promise. Washington also needs to officially rule out Taiwan as a benefactor of the U.S. nuclear umbrella. This needs to happen even if the United States can no longer defend Taiwan with its anti-ship weapons. Lastly, the United States should pass Taiwan more responsibility for its defense.