By George Barber, Fall 2024 Marcellus Policy Fellow

The new administration of President Donald Trump should not go to war in Mexico to eradicate Mexican drug cartels and stop the flow of fentanyl. The United States would be drawn into a costly and likely unwinnable war that it simply cannot afford at the current moment. The prospect of beginning a new conflict with drug cartels must be considered in the context of other world events. The Administration inherits a dangerous world. Europe’s most destructive war since World War II continues in Ukraine. American ally Israel is engaged in destructive conflict with Hamas and Hezbollah, and the possibility of a war with Iran continues to increase. American allies and partners in the Pacific, namely Taiwan, worry about what a belligerent China could mean for their security and prosperity.

In the midst of these escalating conflicts, many Americans advocate a more hawkish and primacist posture from the United States, believing that America should be prepared to use military force in some or all of these conflicts. On top of these flashpoints, many in the Republican Party (GOP), especially those in the incoming Administration, seek to use military force to eliminate Mexican drug cartels. This would bring the United States into a new war, one very close to home. At the same time, many are also calling for an increasingly hawkish and primacist posture toward Latin America, claiming that the United States should invade Mexico to wipe out the drug cartels, pursue a policy of regime change in Venezuela, and ensure that other great powers stay out of America’s sphere of influence, citing the increased presence of Chinese, Russian, and Iranian activity in the Western Hemisphere. Some prominent individuals who could hold key positions in the Trump Administration and influential members of Congress advocate for war in Mexico to end the scourge of fentanyl and violence that is prevalent south of the border. Tom Homan, the “border czar,” has stated that the Administration will wipe the cartels “off the face of the earth.”1National Security Advisor Mike Waltz recently authored a bill to authorize the use of military force against drug cartels, and other members of Congress have echoed this sentiment.2 Vice President J.D. Vance has also vowed to “wage war against Mexican drug cartels.”3It is safe to assume that going to war with Mexican cartels will be a priority of the new administration.

This analysis seeks to articulate why a strategy based on realism and restraint will be the most beneficial to the United States in the years to come with respect to Latin America. It outlines how a restrained foreign policy will address the issues of war with Mexican cartels and in turn, promote American interests vis a vis other great powers. Special attention will be paid to America’s relationship with Mexico, its largest trading partner, and Latin America’s second most populous country. In addition, it assesses the importance of a realist grand strategy in the context of other events in the world, arguing that while America should not and cannot continue down the primacist path in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, it especially cannot afford to pursue primacy in Latin America on top of its current commitments.