By Garrett Ehinger, Fall 2024 Marcellus Policy Fellow
Unwavering U.S. support for Israel risks destabilizing the Middle East by enabling escalatory Israeli actions, such as strikes on Iran and the invasion of Lebanon. This threatens American regional interests, including oil production and counterterrorism efforts, while also jeopardizing similar Chinese interests, such as stability for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), energy investments, and diplomatic peace efforts.
These results fuel Sino-American rivalry, portray the United States as reckless, and further encourage China to align with adversaries like Iran, influencing United Nations (UN) voting and economic allegiances. Together, these dynamics worsen relations with China and exacerbate the emerging second Cold War.
In an effort to not only protect its own national interests, but also forestall increased diplomatic fallout with China, the U.S. government should set clear red lines denoting consequences for provocative Israeli actions that undermine overlapping Chinese and American national interests. Actions the United States should expressly forbid include:
1. Further Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) West Bank settlement or official annexation.
2. Further direct military strikes against Iran of any kind.
3. Official changing of policy regarding the Temple Mount.
IDF occupation of Lebanese towns north of the Awari River for more than 6 months, north of the Litani River for more than one year, and north of Lebanon’s southern border for more than 2 years.
Specific actions the U.S. government might take in response to any crossing of these red lines could include:
1. Sanctions that target West Bank settlers visibly linked to the IDF.
2. Withdrawal of stationed forces, distancing of fleets off the coast of Gaza, etc.
Presidential refusal to deliver F-35 Joint Strike Fighters, F-15s, KC-46A Aerial Refueling Tankers, CH-53K Heavy-Lift Helicopters, GBU-31(v)3 and other JDAMs/bunker busters, or other such military platforms critical to Israeli deterrence and operations as are purchased through the Foreign Military Financing (FMF) process.
3. Refusal to renew the Consolidated Appropriations Act carryovers, or seriously limiting amounts as part of the renewal process, thus increasing Israel’s international loan costs/rates.